Out of sample, costs included, sources linked. Each study asks one question and publishes the answer, including the ideas that fail.
13 ideas tested: 5 clear answers, 6 that depend on conditions and 2 with no edge.
−9.3%median S&P 500 change a year after the 56 records set since 1963 with the 10-year at 5%+ and up a point on the year; +14.9% when it was not rising
data: Yahoo Finance ^GSPC, FRED 10-year yield and CPI, US Treasury, Vanguard VOO holdings · 1962–2026
Until 2008, 80.6% of S&P 500 records came with the 10-year at 5% or more, and when the yield was not climbing fast the index gained a median 14.9% the next year. The 56 records set after a 1-point jump fall into six runs: 4 of 6 were higher a year after their first record, but three ended at the tops of 1980, 1987 and 2000.
Only when yields climbed fast.−9.3% median S&P 500 change a year after the 56 records set since 1963 with the 10-year at 5%+ and up a point on the year; +14.9% when it was not rising
Until 2008, 80.6% of S&P 500 records came with the 10-year at 5% or more, and when the yield was not climbing fast the index gained a median 14.9% the next year. The 56 records set after a 1-point jump fall into six runs: 4 of 6 were higher a year after their first record, but three ended at the tops of 1980, 1987 and 2000.
−9.3%median S&P 500 change a year after the 56 records set since 1963 with the 10-year at 5%+ and up a point on the year; +14.9% when it was not rising
Only if record profit returns.80.2% under Nike’s record close on Oct. 1, 2026, its deepest fall since it listed in 1980
Nike recovered from three earlier falls of 50% or more and beat the S&P 500 in the decade after each. This time the profit fell too: in eight scenarios from its own numbers, $500 beats the index’s median decade ($1,329) only if Nike earns its 2022 record again.
Through inflation, not directly.5 of 8 oil spikes to a 5-year high since 1970 that came with a falling S&P 500; 0 of 5 under it
US crude rose 50% or more in a year 13 times since 1970 and inflation rose every time. Stocks fell only when oil reached a 5-year high, and commodity producers are now 3.7% of the US market, against 26.6% in 1980.
Close to a coin flip.12 of 21 US buybacks of $50B or more that beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months
Across every US buyback authorization of $50 billion or more since 2018, the stock beat the S&P 500 a year later 12 times out of 21, by a median 2.6 points. Nvidia’s record $150 billion is 2.8% of its value, 19th of 25 by size.
Cash, not bonds.7 of 7 yield spikes that sank stocks where T-bills still rose; 10-year Treasuries rose in none
In the 7 yield spikes since 1963 when stocks fell, a 60/40 with 10-year Treasuries lost almost as much as stocks alone, a median 6.6% against 7.4%. Holding T-bills instead cut the loss to 2.5%.
Only with inflation.7 of 20 yield spikes since 1963 came with a falling S&P 500, all with inflation at 3%+
A 1-point jump in the 10-year yield came with stocks rising in every low-inflation episode and falling in half of the high-inflation ones. The yield alone tells you little; the inflation behind it decides.
Often not.88.6% of VOO and VTI is the same money, 435 pairs measured
Measured on every holding, VOO and VTI are nearly one fund and QQQ is half of VOO; SCHD and VOO share under 8%. Calculators that read only the top ten holdings miss most of the overlap.
Most of it.85.5¢ median drop at the open per $1 of dividend, 14,012 ex-dates
Prices fall by most of the dividend, not all of it, and by more of it as the payout grows: 67 cents per $1 on the smallest dividends, 97 cents on the largest. Most are back above the old close within a session or two.
A coin flip.47.3% of 1,250 beats closed lower the next session
Companies beat the consensus five times in six, so a beat is priced in. Below a 5% beat the stock fell more often than it rose; a 1% beat did almost as badly as a miss.
No edge.0 of 3 models that beat “no change”, 429 forecasts
Ridge, random forest and gradient boosting all forecast the 10-year yield worse than assuming it stays put. What protects a bond portfolio is shorter maturities, not a prediction.
No edge.−10.6% weather model, 20 months out of sample
Arabica moves on weather forecasts, days before the thermometer confirms anything — and the stocks that buy the beans feel it a year later, through margins.
