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Market notes

What happened, the numbers checked against their source, and what it meant for a portfolio. 31 notes, newest first.

October 2026

11

  1. Stock market week in review, Oct. 19–23, 2026: Meta sinks chips, the 10-year falls under 5%

    S&P 500 7,623.68 (−0.47% on the week). Nasdaq 25,955.34 (−0.71%). Dow 52,215.16 (+0.41%). On Thursday Meta fell 6.98% on its spending plan, chips 6.72%, and the 10-year yield closed under 5%, at 4.953%. On Friday the Dow lost 652.82 points and Brent hit $116.72. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.13%.

  2. Why are luxury stocks down? LVMH −39.9% and Hermès −39.2% in 2026

    LVMH (MC.PA) fell 39.9% and Hermès (RMS.PA) 39.2% in 2026 through Oct. 22, 2026, while the S&P 500 rose 11.9%. For Hermès, no year since at least 2001 started this badly; yet in all six S&P 500 declines of 19% or more since 2000, it fell less than the index. We measured why.

  3. Tesla stock fell after 32 of its 60 results reports. The size of the move is the story

    Tesla fell the session after 32 of its 60 results reports since 2012, so the direction is close to a coin flip. The size is not: a median move of 6.58% either way, against 1.78% on an ordinary day. After its October 21, 2026 report, it fell 3.08%.

  4. The CAC 40 before the October 17 protest, and what past protest weekends did to it

    The CAC 40 closed Friday, October 16, 2026 at 7,956.70, 8.8% below its August 10 high. Saturday’s protest has no session to price it until Monday, October 19. Past protest weekends stayed within the usual range.

  5. Stock market week in review, Oct. 12–16, 2026: chips fall 11.41%, oil tops $100

    S&P 500 7,659.44 (−1.95% on the week), its worst week since June. Nasdaq 26,140.03 (−4.48%). Dow 52,002.41 (+0.67%). Chip stocks fell 11.41% and the eight listed neoclouds 22.29%. CPI was 3.7%, yet the 10-year ended lower at 5.098%. WTI crude closed at $101.41.

  6. Tesla unveiled the Roadster. After 13 of its last 17 shows, the stock fell the next day

    Tesla unveiled the new Roadster on October 15, 2026. In the first session after its 17 earlier evening product shows since 2012, Tesla stock fell 13 times, with a median session of −4.54%, and the 7 times it opened higher it closed under the open. Options priced a 2.90% move for October 16.

  7. September CPI: 3.7% inflation, 2.6% core, and which one stocks have answered to

    US CPI inflation was 3.7% in September 2026 and core CPI 2.6%, the BLS reported on October 14, both a tenth over the 3.6% and 2.5% economists polled by Dow Jones expected. In the 20 times since 1963 the 10-year yield rose a point in a year, the S&P 500 fell 7 times, always with core CPI at 3% or more.

  8. Stock market week in review, Oct. 5–9, 2026: two records, then an AI scare

    S&P 500 7,811.54 (+1.15% on the week), 0.09% under Tuesday’s record. Nasdaq 27,366.17 (+0.64%). Dow 51,654.95 (+0.93%). Russell 2000 −0.92%. The 10-year closed at 5.311% on Monday, its highest since April 2002. On Thursday a report on OpenAI took chip stocks down 3.39%.

  9. The S&P 500 closes at a record with the 10-year at 5.27%, a first since 2007

    The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93 on October 6, 2026 with the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.27%, its first record with the 10-year over 5% since July 19, 2007. Only 128 of its 500 stocks are higher than at the August 13 record. What followed the six earlier runs like it.

  10. Stock market week in review, Sept. 28–Oct. 2, 2026: the 10-year’s highest since 2002

    S&P 500 7,722.72 (−0.27% on the week). Nasdaq 27,190.86 (+0.45%). Dow 51,176.96 (−1.26%). Russell 2000 −0.16%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.277%, after 5.293% on Sept. 30, its highest since 2002. September payrolls: +29,000.

  11. Nike at $35 is not the deal of a lifetime. What would $500 for 10 years do?

    Nike closed at $35.15 on October 1, 2026, 80.2% under its 2021 record and its lowest close since October 2013. We priced a $500, 10-year bet in eight scenarios from Nike's own numbers: it beats an S&P 500 fund's median decade ($1,329) only if Nike earns its 2022 record profit again.

September 2026

20

  1. Do commodities drive the stock market? We measured 13 oil spikes since 1970

    US crude oil rose 50% or more in a year 13 times from 1970 to 2026. Inflation climbed all 13 times. The S&P 500 fell in 5 of the 8 spikes that took oil to a 5-year high and rose in all 5 that did not. What moved, what held up, and what it means for a portfolio.

  2. August PCE inflation: 3.4%, core 3.0%, and a July that was rewritten

    PCE inflation was 3.4% in August 2026 and core PCE 3.0%, under the 3.7% and 3.3% forecast. But the same release revised July to 3.4% and 3.0%: August did not cool, the past did. What it means for bonds, stocks and your portfolio.

  3. Nvidia's $150 billion buyback: what the 24 record buybacks before it did next

    Nvidia's $150 billion buyback, announced September 28, 2026, is the largest ever in dollars but only 2.8% of its value. Of the 21 earlier US buybacks of $50 billion or more with a year behind them, 12 beat the S&P 500 over the next 12 months, by a median 2.6 points.

  4. What held up when bond yields spiked? 20 episodes since 1963

    Since 1963 the 10-year Treasury yield jumped 1 point or more in a year 20 times. In the 7 when stocks fell, 10-year Treasuries lost money every time and T-bills made money every time; a 60/40 with Treasuries lost a median 6.6%, one with T-bills 2.5%.

  5. Anthropic IPO leak: $4.6B in revenue, but what does $42B in losses mean?

    Anthropic IPO leaks show $4.6B revenue and a $42B net loss. Understand the accounting charge, compute commitments and valuation before reading the headlines.

  6. Do stocks fall when bond yields rise? 20 yield spikes since 1963

    Since 1963 the 10-year Treasury yield rose 1 point or more in a year 20 times. The S&P 500 fell over that year in 7, all with inflation at 3% or more; with inflation under 3%, it rose every time. Today: yield +1.02 points, inflation 3.4%.

  7. Stock market week in review, Sept. 21–25, 2026: stocks up, the 10-year at 5.18%

    S&P 500 7,743.41 (+1.21% on the week). Nasdaq 27,068.72 (+2.06%). Dow 51,828.62 (+0.28%). Russell 2000 −0.80%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.184%, its highest since July 2007. What moved markets Sept. 21–25, 2026.

  8. 30 popular ETFs, 435 pairs: which ones are the same fund?

    VOO and VTI are 88.6% the same money, VOO and QQQ 53.8%, SCHD and VOO 7.9%. We measured all 435 pairs of 30 popular ETFs on the issuers’ full holdings files, and why top-10 calculators get most of them wrong.

  9. Does a stock drop by the dividend on the ex-date? We measured 14,012

    On 14,012 ex-dividend days from 2016 to 2026, US stocks and ETFs opened a median 85.5 cents lower per $1 of dividend, not the full dollar. The bigger the payout, the closer the drop came to it. Recovery took a median of 1 session. The data, by dividend size.

  10. Why stocks fall after beating earnings: we checked 1,476 reports

    Of 1,250 US earnings reports that beat the EPS consensus from September 2025 to September 2026, 47.3% were followed by a lower close the next session. A beat under 5% fell more often than not. The data, by surprise size, timing and sector.

  11. Ondo puts BlackRock-designed portfolios onchain. What it means for the ONDO token

    On Sept. 24, 2026, Ondo launched three portfolio tokens built on BlackRock model strategies. What they are, what BlackRock actually does, where Ondo stands in tokenized assets, and why the ONDO token, 80% under its 2024 peak, is a different bet from the products.

  12. The 10-year Treasury yield closes at 5.11%, its highest since 2007

    The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.11% on Sept. 23, 2026, up 0.15 points in a day and its highest close since July 2007. The 2-year rose to 4.85% and the 30-year to 5.40%. Why it jumped, and what it means for bonds, stocks and loans.

  13. Meta stock is up 35% in a month. What Muse and Connect 2026 changed

    Meta closed at $744.10 on Sept. 23, 2026, up 35.3% in 22 sessions while the Nasdaq gained 2.9%. What drove it (the Muse AI agent, a Wells Fargo upgrade), what Connect 2026 launched, from $1,299.99 VR Glasses to Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3, and the risks now priced in.

  14. How much do Treasury bonds lose when yields rise? What 10, 20 and 30-year bonds risk at 5%, and how to hedge

    A new 30-year Treasury loses 13.4% of its price if yields rise one point, a 10-year 7.5% and a 2-year 1.9%, at the yields of September 22, 2026. We measured both directions for each maturity, tested three machine-learning forecasts, and checked what actually protected investors in 2022.

  15. Can you trade coffee on the weather? We backtested it, 2016–2026

    Arabica jumped 27% in five sessions in July 2026 without a single cold night in the coffee belt. We backtested a Brazil weather model on coffee futures: −10.6% out of sample. Here is why, and which coffee stocks really feel the bean.

  16. Stock market week in review, Sept. 21–22, 2026: tech leads the bounce

    S&P 500 +1.49% to 7,764.64. Nasdaq +2.72% to 27,244.28. Dow +0.35% to 51,863.69. 10-year Treasury yield 4.968%. What moved markets Sept. 21–22, 2026.

  17. How Russia, Saudi Arabia and oil move your portfolio — and whether gold protects it

    Drones shut Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz bypass and Putin warned Europe of war in the same week. How an oil shock reaches your stocks, why Europe feels it first, what gold really did last time, and a replay you can run on your own holdings.

  18. The Fed raises rates to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023

    The Fed voted 12–0 on Sept. 16 to raise rates a quarter point, its first hike since July 2023. Why it moved now, and what the new dot plot says comes next.

  19. The 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007

    10-year Treasury yield closes: 5.006% on Sept. 16, 2026, the highest since July 2007; 4.947% on Sept. 17; 4.998% on Sept. 18. Why it climbed, and what 5% means for bonds, mortgages and stocks.

  20. Stock market week in review, Sept. 14–18, 2026: Fed hike, 5% yields and a tech rebound

    Closes on Friday, Sept. 18, 2026: S&P 500 7,650.50, Dow 51,682.64, Nasdaq 26,522.54, 10-year Treasury yield 4.998%. The Fed week in review: flat S&P, Dow −1.7%, yields at 5%.