Key facts, as of
As of October 8, 2026, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) trades at $442.26, up 130.9% over the past year. Its 52-week range runs from $161.93 to $444.99; the price is 0.6% below that high. It is 0.6% below its all-time high of $444.99, reached in October 2026. Over the 10 years to the end of September 2026, with dividends reinvested, it returned +1213.2%, against +312.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It sits 66.5% above its 200-day average of $265.66, the usual sign of a long-term uptrend. Its 30-day volatility is 36.2% annualized, which we rate high risk. It has a trailing P/E of 15.3 and a dividend yield of 0.90%.
Cite: Portfolio Terminal, "Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stock analysis", 2026-10-08. https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/mpc
Where it trades today
trading 99% of the way up its 52-week range
How the price has moved
How far it is from its record
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is 0.6% below its all-time high of $444.99, reached in October 2026. Over the 10 years to the end of September 2026, with dividends reinvested, it returned +1213.2%, against +312.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY).
What to weigh before acting
What Matters Now
- Capital discipline and commodity sensitivity matter more than top-line momentum because cash flow can swing quickly with the cycle.
- MPC trades at 15.3x earnings, well above the energy average of 10.5x, so the market is already pricing in above-consensus execution.
- Recent realized volatility is running around 36.2%, above the sector norm of 32.0%, so position sizing matters more than usual.
- MPC is in a bullish short-term regime and only 0.6% below its 52-week high, so the question is whether fundamentals can keep pace with that stronger tape.
Portfolio Use Case
- MPC is more useful for investors comparing conviction names inside energy than for someone looking for a passive “set and forget” holding.
- The beta profile suggests it can fit a quality or lower-volatility sleeve more naturally than a high-octane tactical basket.
- This page is most useful for deciding whether the stock deserves a permanent slot in the portfolio or just a place on the watchlist.
What Would Change the View
- A reset in earnings expectations or a faster peer catch-up could compress the premium valuation currently embedded in MPC.
- If the short-term trend rolls over while volume fades, the market may stop paying up for momentum before the fundamentals change.
- Volatility is already above the sector norm, so even a correct long-term thesis can be painful if the position size is too aggressive.
Methodology
- Price, market cap, beta, yield, and liquidity fields for MPC come from Yahoo Finance quote and summary data.
- 30-day volatility is calculated from recent daily returns and annualized using a 252-trading-day convention.
- Sector context uses stored benchmark averages for Energy so each page compares the ticker against a stable peer baseline rather than against the whole market.
- Peer comparisons use the Portfolio Terminal coverage set and highlight nearby listed alternatives such as XOM, CVX, COP.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance quote dataopen →
Live quote, valuation, beta, yield, and volume fields used for MPC. Last refresh: Oct 8, 2026, 10:10 AM.
- Portfolio Terminal methodologyopen →
Explains how analytics, refresh cadence, and portfolio interpretation work across the product.
- Peer set and coverage context
Comparative context for this page is anchored around nearby tracked names such as XOM, CVX, COP.
What Marathon Petroleum does
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and…
Employees
18,500
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Headquarters
Findlay, United States
What analysts expect
MPC carries a buy consensus from 18 analysts, with an average price target of $385.56 versus $442.26 today (-12.8%). Targets are estimates and can move quickly after earnings.
Consensus aggregated by Yahoo Finance. Targets are estimates, not forecasts.
How the business is doing
MPC generated $154.15B in trailing revenue (53.7% year over year), with a 5.5% net margin, and $9.25B of free cash flow, against $26.52B of net debt.
The numbers, year by year
| Fiscal year | Revenue | Gross profit | Operating income | Net income | EPS | Free cash flow |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $132.70B | $10.00B | $5.77B | $4.05B | $13.24 | $4.77B |
| 2024 | $138.86B | $9.29B | $5.25B | $3.44B | $10.11 | $6.13B |
| 2023 | $148.38B | $16.51B | $12.59B | $9.68B | $23.73 | $12.23B |
| 2022 | $177.45B | $22.57B | $18.97B | $14.52B | $28.31 | $13.94B |
When it reports next
Estimates aggregated by Yahoo Finance. Dates move and estimates change until the report lands.
Which ETFs hold it
MPC is in 7 of the 30 ETFs we track. It weighs most in XLE: 4.57% of the fund, holding #6 of 21.
Famous investors who hold it
MPC is in the latest 13F of 1 of the 15 famous investors we follow. Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) holds the most of it: 0.37% of the portfolio, position #44 of 992, as of Q2 2026.
How it sits in energy
Volatile sector tied to oil and gas prices, includes exploration, production, and refining.
The companies it competes with
MPC beside the energy names it is usually measured against.
What the chart is saying
Trading at its high for the year, with no resistance overhead.
uptrend- Price is 18.5% above its 50-day average and 66.5% above its 200-day.
- RSI at 75 is overbought: strong momentum, and stretched.
- Nothing above has stopped it this year; the nearest floor is $262.88 (-40.6%).
A description of the chart, not advice. Indicators describe what the price has done; none of them knows what it does next.
Questions people ask about it
Is MPC a good investment in 2026?
Marathon Petroleum trades at a P/E ratio of 15.3, with high volatility (36.2% annualized). Recent momentum is positive.
What is the risk level of MPC?
Based on 30-day volatility of 36.2%, MPC has HIGH risk. Beta of 0.54 indicates lower sensitivity to market movements than average.
Does MPC pay dividends?
Yes, Marathon Petroleum has a dividend yield of 0.90%.
How far is MPC from its all-time high?
Marathon Petroleum is 0.6% below its all-time high of $444.99, reached in October 2026. Over the 10 years to the end of September 2026, with dividends reinvested, it returned +1213.2%, against +312.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY).
Which ETFs hold MPC?
7 of the 30 popular ETFs we track hold Marathon Petroleum. The largest weights: XLE (4.57%), VYM (0.44%), VTV (0.40%), SPY (0.17%) and IVV (0.17%). Measured on each issuer's full holdings file, dated August 31 to September 24, 2026.
How much of VOO is MPC?
0.16%, as of August 31, 2026: MPC is holding #108 of 505 in Vanguard's file for VOO. $1,000 in VOO puts about $1.65 in Marathon Petroleum.
Which famous investors own MPC?
Ray Dalio (0.37% of Bridgewater Associates's 13F), according to their latest Form 13F filings with the SEC (Q2 2026). A 13F lists US long positions 45 days after the quarter ends, so it can be out of date.
What is the analyst price target for MPC?
The average analyst price target for Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is $385.56 based on 18 analyst estimates, about 12.8% below the current price of $442.26. The published range runs from $236.00 to $472.00.
How much revenue does MPC generate?
Marathon Petroleum reported $154.15B in trailing twelve-month revenue. Revenue growth is running at 53.7% year over year. Net margin sits at 5.5%. Figures are aggregated from company filings by Yahoo Finance and refresh on an hourly cadence.
Compare MPC with anything
Five years side by side: what $10,000 became, how far each fell, whether they move together.