--- title: "Does Tesla’s weekend price on Hyperliquid call Monday’s open? (not before Monday morning)" url: https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/tesla-weekend-price-hyperliquid-monday-open author: "Julien Esnault" publisher: "Portfolio Terminal" published: 2026-11-03 type: guide tags: ["Research", "Crypto", "Stock Market"] summary: "We tested Tesla’s perp on Hyperliquid on 50 weekends, Nov. 21, 2025 to Nov. 2, 2026. At 7:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m. New York time on Sunday, it was on the side of Friday’s close where Monday opened 29 times, about a coin flip. At 7:00 a.m. or 8:00 a.m. Monday, 42 times." --- > **Source:** Julien Esnault, "Does Tesla’s weekend price on Hyperliquid call Monday’s open? (not before Monday morning)", Portfolio Terminal, 2026-11-03. https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/tesla-weekend-price-hyperliquid-monday-open > When you use a figure from this article, cite it with the line above and link to the URL. Figures are checked against the primary data named in the Sources line at the end. ## In short - Over 50 weekends from November 21, 2025 to November 2, 2026, Tesla’s perp on Hyperliquid (xyz:TSLA) pointed the right way from Friday’s close 29 times at 7:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m. New York time on Sunday, and 42 times at 7:00 a.m. or 8:00 a.m. Monday, missing the open by a median 0.33% against 1.12% for Friday’s close. - Across 85 US stocks and funds traded as perps on Hyperliquid and 1,543 weekends from April to October 2026, the perp was nearer Monday’s open than Friday’s close in 45% of weekends between 8:00 p.m. Friday and 6:00 p.m. Sunday New York time, and in 79% at 9:00 a.m. Monday. - Hyperliquid’s weekend stock perps got better at calling Monday’s open only after other markets reopened on Sunday: 45% nearer than Friday’s close at 6:00 p.m., 51% at 7:00 p.m. after CME stock futures reopen, 59% at 9:00 p.m. after overnight stock trading starts. - A median $8.7 million of Tesla’s perp traded on Hyperliquid between Friday’s close and Sunday evening over 50 weekends to October 2026; the busiest weekend, Oct. 16–19, 2026, traded $89.3 million. # Does Tesla’s weekend price on Hyperliquid call Monday’s open? (not before Monday morning) **Short answer:** not on Sunday: over 50 weekends to November 2, 2026, Tesla’s perp on Hyperliquid at 7:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m. New York time on Sunday pointed the right way from Friday’s close 29 times, about a coin flip. At 7:00 a.m. or 8:00 a.m. Monday, it did 42 times. A perpetual future, or perp, is a contract that follows a price and never expires. trade[XYZ] runs one on Tesla (TSLA), called xyz:TSLA, on Hyperliquid, a blockchain built for trading. It trades all weekend while Nasdaq is shut. We compared it with Friday’s close and with the price that printed at 9:30 a.m. Monday, on Tesla and then on the 85 US stocks and funds on the exchange that we could match to their listing. ## Tesla’s 50 weekends: Sunday evening against Monday morning | Guess for Monday’s open | Right side of Friday’s close | Nearer the open than Friday’s close | Median miss | |---|---|---|---| | Friday’s close, unchanged | n/a | n/a | 1.12% | | Perp, Sunday evening | 29 of 50 | 27 of 50 | 1.03% | | Perp, Monday morning | 42 of 50 | 41 of 50 | 0.33% | Friday’s close and Monday’s open come from Yahoo Finance, from November 21, 2025 on. The perp’s price is its last trade at two moments: midnight UTC between Sunday and Monday, which is 8:00 p.m. Sunday in New York in summer time and 7:00 p.m. in winter, and noon UTC Monday, which is 8:00 a.m. or 7:00 a.m. "Right side" means the perp was up from Friday’s close when Monday opened up, and down when it opened down. "Nearer" means it was closer to the open than Friday’s close was. On Sunday evening, 29 right calls in 50 is close to chance: a coin flip does that well or better about 1 time in 6. The perp was nearer the open than Friday’s close on 27 weekends and further on the other 23. By Monday morning it was a different instrument: 42 right calls, and a median miss of 0.33%, a third of what holding Friday’s close gave. ![Bar chart of the median miss of Tesla’s Monday open over 50 weekends, November 2025 to October 2026: Friday’s close 1.12%, Hyperliquid’s Tesla perp on Sunday evening 1.03%, the same perp at noon UTC Monday 0.33%](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog-sources/tesla-weekend-perp-miss-monday-open.png "Source: Hyperliquid xyz:TSLA 4-hour candles; Yahoo Finance TSLA closes and opens") A Monday gap is the move between Friday’s close and Monday’s open. Tesla’s was a median 1.12% either way over these weekends, and its biggest was +3.12%, on Oct. 26, 2026. Results reports move Tesla far more: see [does Tesla stock fall after earnings?](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/does-tesla-stock-fall-after-earnings) ## The weekend itself is noise; the signal comes back Sunday night Hourly candles go back to April on Hyperliquid’s public API, so we ran the same test hour by hour on every weekend since April 10, 2026 that ran from a Friday to a Monday: 1,543 weekends across the 85 stocks and funds. The chart at the top of this page is the result, in New York time. From 8:00 p.m. Friday to 6:00 p.m. Sunday, the perps were nearer Monday’s open than Friday’s close in 45% of weekends, on average across those hours. For most of the weekend, Friday’s close was the better guess. Then other markets open, and the perp follows them: - 7:00 p.m. Sunday, an hour after US stock index futures reopen on CME Globex: 51%. - 9:00 p.m. Sunday, an hour after overnight trading in US stocks starts (Robinhood’s 24 Hour Market, for one): 59%. - 4:00 a.m. Monday, as pre-market trading opens: 64%. - 9:00 a.m. Monday, half an hour before the open: 79%. Tesla alone follows the same shape on its 26 weekends with hourly data, more jagged because 26 is a small sample: 37% over the weekend hours, 77% at 9:00 a.m. Monday. The perp does not find Monday’s price on its own; it carries what the futures, the overnight session and the pre-market have already found. ## How trade[XYZ] prices Tesla while Nasdaq is closed On a weekend the perp has no stock quote to follow. Its reference price starts from Friday’s close and drifts toward the perp’s own trading over about 8 hours, as Blockworks Research described the design in October 2025. The price used to close out losing positions cannot move more than 5% either way from Friday’s close on Tesla. Over our 50 weekends, the perp’s biggest move from Friday’s close by Sunday evening was 2.66%, well inside that limit. Weekend trading is thin: a median $8.7 million of the Tesla perp changed hands between Friday’s close and Sunday evening. At Friday’s close, the perp and the stock agree: over the 30 Fridays with hourly candles, the median gap between them at 4:00 p.m. was 0.03%. trade[XYZ] is also the company ICE signed with in October: see [why Hyperliquid rose on the ICE deal](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/hyperliquid-hype-ice-deal-october-2026). ## Tesla’s 7 biggest Monday gaps On the 7 weekends Tesla opened 2% or more away from Friday’s close, the Sunday-evening perp was on the right side 5 times, and the Monday-morning perp 7 times. | Weekend | Friday close | Monday open | Gap | Perp, Sunday evening | Perp, Monday morning | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Nov. 21–24, 2025 | $391.09 | $402.17 | +2.83% | +1.67% | +1.87% | | Dec. 12–15, 2025 | $458.96 | $469.44 | +2.28% | −1.00% | +1.03% | | Jan. 2–5, 2026 | $438.07 | $447.99 | +2.26% | +1.86% | +1.72% | | Jan. 30–Feb. 2, 2026 | $430.41 | $421.29 | −2.12% | −0.85% | −2.39% | | Feb. 27–March 2, 2026 | $402.51 | $390.60 | −2.96% | −0.76% | −2.36% | | Sept. 18–21, 2026 | $364.27 | $371.64 | +2.02% | +0.21% | +1.56% | | Oct. 23–26, 2026 | $372.22 | $383.83 | +3.12% | −0.31% | +2.23% | Even when it had the direction, the Sunday price caught only part of the move: on Oct. 23–26, 2026, Tesla opened +3.12% while the perp stood at −0.31% on Sunday evening. The busiest weekend went the other way. On Oct. 16–19, 2026, $89.3 million of the perp traded, the most of any weekend, and it stood +2.66% on Sunday evening; Tesla opened +0.78%. ## 85 stocks and funds: who the Sunday price helped Across all 85 instruments, 68 stocks and 17 funds, and 2,185 weekends, the Sunday-evening perp was nearer Monday’s open than Friday’s close 51.4% of the time, and on the right side of Friday’s close 61.6% of the time. On Monday morning those figures were 75.3% and 87.6%. On gaps of 2% or more the Sunday price was on the right side 475 times in 662: a big weekend story is usually visible in the perp by Sunday, even when the size is not. ![Bar chart of 30 stocks and funds traded as perps on Hyperliquid with 30 weekends or more, November 2025 to October 2026: share of weekends the Sunday-evening perp was nearer Monday’s open than Friday’s close, in points over or under half, from CoreWeave +11.5 points to the iShares MSCI Japan fund −14.7 points](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog-sources/weekend-perps-sunday-score-by-stock.png "Source: Hyperliquid xyz 4-hour candles; Yahoo Finance closes and opens") Of the 30 names with 30 weekends or more, 16 beat Friday’s close on more than half their Sunday evenings and 13 on fewer. The best, CoreWeave (CRWV), did it 24 times in 39, a result a coin flip matches about 1 time in 10; the worst, the iShares MSCI Japan fund (EWJ), 12 times in 34. With about 40 weekends each, that spread is what chance alone produces, so no name stands out as a reliable Sunday signal. [Alphabet (GOOGL)](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/googl), 28 times in 49, and [Nvidia (NVDA)](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/nvda) and Tesla, 27 times in 50 each, sat in the top third, still within chance. Other measurements agree. Blockworks Research’s 0xResearch found the pre-open Hyperliquid price closer to the reopening than Friday’s close 50.7% of the time across 23 markets and 146 weekend samples. Crypto.com Research had Tesla’s perp on the right side 52.6% of the time at 10:00 p.m. UTC on Sunday over 19 weekends to April 30, 2026. ## What it means if you own Tesla Over the weekend, Friday’s close is still the best estimate of where your Tesla shares will open: a weekend headline about a move on Hyperliquid tells you little. From Monday morning, New York time, the perp is a fair early read, because by then it follows stock futures, the overnight session and pre-market trading rather than leading them. The [Tesla (TSLA)](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/tsla) page shows its latest quote and the time it printed. The same goes for a portfolio. Portfolio Terminal values your lines at the last close, and the [Nasdaq Composite](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/nasdaq-composite) and [S&P 500](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/sp-500) pages show where the index stood when the session ended. If you also hold crypto on Hyperliquid, [paste your Hyperliquid address](https://portfolio-terminal.com/onboarding?broker=hyperliquid) and its tokens come in as lines beside your stocks and funds; perps are listed in the review, not added. Read-only: no sign-up, no signature, no key. Our other tests, including Tesla after [its product shows](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/tesla-roadster-stock-reaction), are on [the research shelf](https://portfolio-terminal.com/research). ## How we measured Perp prices are Hyperliquid’s public API (candleSnapshot on xyz:, no key): 4-hour candles from each listing (Tesla’s from November 13, 2025) and hourly candles from April 2026, the API’s limit of about 5,000 candles per interval. A perp’s price at a moment is the close of the last candle that ended by then. Stock prices are Yahoo Finance daily bars as printed (split-adjusted, not dividend-adjusted). A weekend is two sessions in a row with a Saturday between them; 7 of Tesla’s 50 were long weekends or Good Friday, and the hour-by-hour test keeps only Friday-to-Monday ones. Each perp’s first week is skipped. Of the 142 xyz markets, 98 have a US-listed stock or fund with the same ticker on Yahoo; 8 have no trading history in the API yet, 1 listed too recently for a full weekend, and 4 failed a price check (perp within 1.5% of the stock at Friday’s close), namesakes such as CL (Colgate-Palmolive on Yahoo, crude oil on Hyperliquid). That leaves 85, and we dropped 1 weekend whose perp sat 25% or more from the close. What would change the result: a different Sunday hour (ours falls after stock futures reopen at 6:00 p.m. and by 8:00 p.m., when overnight stock trading starts), news that breaks over a weekend, and a deeper weekend order book as these markets grow. ## Reproduce it This rebuilds the Tesla table from Hyperliquid’s public API and Yahoo Finance, with no key; we ran it on November 3, 2026. ```python # Reproduces https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/tesla-weekend-price-hyperliquid-monday-open # pip install requests yfinance pandas # Tesla's perp on Hyperliquid (xyz:TSLA) against Tesla's Monday open, every weekend from # Nov. 21, 2025 to Oct. 30, 2026: does the perp's price on Sunday evening, or at 12:00 UTC # Monday, sit on the right side of Friday's close, and nearer the open than Friday's close? from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone from statistics import median import requests import yfinance as yf H4 = 4 * 3600 * 1000 req = {"coin": "xyz:TSLA", "interval": "4h", "startTime": 0, "endTime": int(datetime.now(timezone.utc).timestamp() * 1000)} rows = requests.post("https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info", json={"type": "candleSnapshot", "req": req}, timeout=30).json() close_at = {int(r["t"]) + H4: float(r["c"]) for r in rows} # candle end (ms, UTC) -> last trade def perp(day, hour): """The perp's last trade at `hour`:00 UTC on `day`.""" t = datetime.strptime(day, "%Y-%m-%d").replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc) + timedelta(hours=hour) return close_at.get(int(t.timestamp() * 1000)) bars = yf.Ticker("TSLA").history(start="2025-11-20", end="2026-11-03", auto_adjust=False) days = [d.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for d in bars.index] weekends = [] for i in range(1, len(days)): a, b = datetime.strptime(days[i - 1], "%Y-%m-%d"), datetime.strptime(days[i], "%Y-%m-%d") if not any((a + timedelta(n)).weekday() == 5 for n in range(1, (b - a).days)): continue if days[i - 1] < "2025-11-21" or days[i - 1] > "2026-10-30": continue close, open_ = float(bars["Close"].iloc[i - 1]), float(bars["Open"].iloc[i]) sunday, preopen = perp(days[i], 0), perp(days[i], 12) gap = (open_ / close - 1) * 100 weekends.append((days[i - 1], close, open_, gap, (sunday / close - 1) * 100, (preopen / close - 1) * 100)) print(f"{len(weekends)} weekends, {weekends[0][0]} to {weekends[-1][0]} (Friday)\n") print(f"{'Friday':<12}{'close':>9}{'Mon open':>10}{'gap':>8}{'Sun eve':>9}{'Mon 12Z':>9}") for f, c, o, g, s, p in weekends: print(f"{f:<12}{c:>9.2f}{o:>10.2f}{g:>+7.2f}%{s:>+8.2f}%{p:>+8.2f}%") def score(k, label): moved = [w for w in weekends if w[3] != 0] called = sum(1 for w in moved if (w[k] > 0) == (w[3] > 0) and w[k] != 0) beat = sum(1 for w in weekends if abs(w[k] - w[3]) < abs(w[3])) err = median(abs(w[k] - w[3]) for w in weekends) print(f"{label}: right side of Friday's close {called} of {len(moved)}, " f"nearer the open than Friday's close {beat} of {len(weekends)}, median miss {err:.2f}%") print() print(f"Friday's close as the guess: median miss {median(abs(w[3]) for w in weekends):.2f}%") score(4, "Perp, Sunday evening (00:00 UTC)") score(5, "Perp, Monday 12:00 UTC") ``` ```text 50 weekends, 2025-11-21 to 2026-10-30 (Friday) Friday close Mon open gap Sun eve Mon 12Z 2025-11-21 391.09 402.17 +2.83% +1.67% +1.87% 2025-11-28 430.17 425.32 -1.13% +0.44% -1.26% 2025-12-05 455.00 447.45 -1.66% +0.07% -1.47% 2025-12-12 458.96 469.44 +2.28% -1.00% +1.03% 2025-12-19 481.20 489.88 +1.80% +0.35% +1.15% 2025-12-26 475.19 469.00 -1.30% +0.12% -1.45% 2026-01-02 438.07 447.99 +2.26% +1.86% +1.72% 2026-01-09 445.01 441.23 -0.85% +0.25% -0.68% 2026-01-16 437.50 429.36 -1.86% -0.82% -2.43% 2026-01-23 449.06 445.00 -0.90% -1.64% -0.87% 2026-01-30 430.41 421.29 -2.12% -0.85% -2.39% 2026-02-06 411.11 409.91 -0.29% +0.52% -0.17% 2026-02-13 417.44 412.36 -1.22% +0.09% -1.08% 2026-02-20 411.82 407.29 -1.10% -0.36% -1.00% 2026-02-27 402.51 390.60 -2.96% -0.76% -2.36% 2026-03-06 396.73 390.05 -1.68% -2.48% -1.92% 2026-03-13 391.20 396.22 +1.28% +0.26% +1.09% 2026-03-20 367.96 373.09 +1.39% +0.23% -0.16% 2026-03-27 361.83 365.86 +1.11% -1.01% +0.63% 2026-04-02 360.59 362.59 +0.55% -0.37% +0.87% 2026-04-10 348.95 350.07 +0.32% -1.26% -0.80% 2026-04-17 400.62 402.58 +0.49% -1.41% -0.72% 2026-04-24 376.30 372.09 -1.12% -0.31% -0.39% 2026-05-01 390.82 390.23 -0.15% +0.52% +0.17% 2026-05-08 428.35 422.16 -1.45% -0.30% -0.76% 2026-05-15 422.24 419.27 -0.70% -0.78% -1.10% 2026-05-22 426.01 430.26 +1.00% +1.80% +1.04% 2026-05-29 435.79 427.49 -1.90% +0.61% -1.42% 2026-06-05 391.00 396.33 +1.36% +1.46% +1.64% 2026-06-12 406.43 412.37 +1.46% +1.09% +1.31% 2026-06-18 400.49 394.85 -1.41% -0.66% -0.95% 2026-06-26 379.71 381.79 +0.55% +0.32% +0.82% 2026-07-02 393.45 397.50 +1.03% +1.52% +1.50% 2026-07-10 407.76 404.61 -0.77% -0.54% -0.75% 2026-07-17 380.84 386.05 +1.37% +0.93% +1.22% 2026-07-24 313.03 313.24 +0.07% +1.39% +0.90% 2026-07-31 311.21 310.96 -0.08% +1.18% +0.26% 2026-08-07 328.58 326.60 -0.60% +0.37% +0.52% 2026-08-14 342.27 340.69 -0.46% +0.27% -0.27% 2026-08-21 362.86 361.41 -0.40% +0.82% -0.38% 2026-08-28 348.75 347.21 -0.44% -0.31% -0.54% 2026-09-04 354.08 357.10 +0.85% +0.25% +0.49% 2026-09-11 365.44 359.78 -1.55% -0.80% -1.64% 2026-09-18 364.27 371.64 +2.02% +0.21% +1.56% 2026-09-25 372.11 368.06 -1.09% +0.27% -0.43% 2026-10-02 370.59 369.00 -0.43% +0.53% -0.68% 2026-10-09 382.70 382.61 -0.02% +0.56% +0.07% 2026-10-16 354.72 357.50 +0.78% +2.66% -0.02% 2026-10-23 372.22 383.83 +3.12% -0.31% +2.23% 2026-10-30 399.81 404.66 +1.21% +0.11% +0.80% Friday's close as the guess: median miss 1.12% Perp, Sunday evening (00:00 UTC): right side of Friday's close 29 of 50, nearer the open than Friday's close 27 of 50, median miss 1.03% Perp, Monday 12:00 UTC: right side of Friday's close 42 of 50, nearer the open than Friday's close 41 of 50, median miss 0.33% ``` --- *This study measures prices. It is not investment advice, and Portfolio Terminal has no link with trade[XYZ] or Hyperliquid.* Sources: [Hyperliquid API documentation](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api) · [Blockworks Research, "Weekends are for trading", Oct. 20, 2025](https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/weekends-are-for-trading) · [Blockworks Research 0xResearch, "When markets sleep"](https://blockworks-research.beehiiv.com/p/when-markets-sleep) · [Crypto.com Research, real-world asset perpetuals, May 2026](https://crypto.com/research/rwa-perps-find-predictive-edge-apr-2026) · [CME Group, E-mini S&P 500 contract specs](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.contractSpecs.html) · [Robinhood, 24 Hour Market](https://robinhood.com/us/en/support/articles/24hour-market/) · [Yahoo Finance, TSLA history](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) ## Questions and answers **Does Tesla’s weekend price on Hyperliquid predict Monday’s open?** Not on Sunday. Over 50 weekends from November 2025 to October 2026, Tesla’s Hyperliquid perp at 7:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m. New York time on Sunday pointed the right way from Friday’s close 29 times and missed Monday’s open by a median 1.03%, against 1.12% for Friday’s close. At 7:00 a.m. or 8:00 a.m. Monday it was right 42 times in 50. **When does the Hyperliquid weekend price start to beat Friday’s close?** On Sunday night, New York time. Across 85 US stocks and funds and 1,543 weekends from April to October 2026, the perp was nearer Monday’s open than Friday’s close in 45% of weekends at 6:00 p.m. Sunday, 59% at 9:00 p.m., after stock futures and overnight trading reopen, and 79% at 9:00 a.m. Monday. **How is Tesla priced on Hyperliquid when the stock market is closed?** trade[XYZ]’s Tesla perp keeps trading on Hyperliquid on weekends. Its reference price starts from Friday’s close and drifts toward the perp’s own trading over about 8 hours, and the price used to close out losing positions cannot move more than 5% either way from Friday’s close, as Blockworks Research described the design in October 2025. **How far does Tesla usually open from Friday’s close on a Monday?** A median 1.12% either way over 50 weekends from November 2025 to October 2026. 7 of those Mondays opened 2% or more away, the biggest +3.12% on October 26, 2026; Tesla’s Hyperliquid perp was on the right side of 5 of the 7 on Sunday evening. **Which stocks’ weekend perps came closest to Monday’s open?** Among 30 stocks and funds with 30 weekends or more on Hyperliquid to October 2026, CoreWeave’s Sunday-evening perp beat Friday’s close most often, 24 times in 39, and the iShares MSCI Japan fund least, 12 in 34. With about 40 weekends each, that spread is within what chance produces. **Is the Hyperliquid Tesla perp the same as owning Tesla stock?** No. A perpetual future is a contract that follows Tesla’s price, settled in USDC, with funding payments between buyers and sellers and liquidation under margin. It carries no shares, no vote and no claim on Tesla, and it trades on a crypto exchange outside US stock market rules. This is not investment advice.