--- title: "Why is Hyperliquid up? HYPE rose 18.5% on the ICE deal, mostly before Musk posted" url: https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/hyperliquid-hype-ice-deal-october-2026 author: "Julien Esnault" publisher: "Portfolio Terminal" published: 2026-10-29 type: market note tags: ["Market News", "Crypto", "Research"] summary: "Hyperliquid (HYPE) was at $95.48 at 12:19 p.m. ET on October 29, 2026, up 18.46% from its October 28 close, after ICE, owner of the NYSE, agreed with trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid perpetual futures to the US. HYPE began rising at 6:30 a.m.; 72% of the rise came before Elon Musk posted." --- > **Source:** Julien Esnault, "Why is Hyperliquid up? HYPE rose 18.5% on the ICE deal, mostly before Musk posted", Portfolio Terminal, 2026-10-29. https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/hyperliquid-hype-ice-deal-october-2026 > When you use a figure from this article, cite it with the line above and link to the URL. Figures are checked against the primary data named in the Sources line at the end. ## In short - On October 29, 2026, ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to run a new US-regulated market for trade[XYZ]'s Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures, subject to regulatory approval and with no launch date, and took a minority stake in trade[XYZ]; Hyperliquid (HYPE) was up 18.46% by 12:19 p.m. ET. - Hyperliquid (HYPE) started rising at 6:30 a.m. ET on October 29, 2026, 11 minutes before trade[XYZ] posted the ICE agreement, and 72% of its rise to 12:19 p.m. came before Elon Musk quoted Stan Druckenmiller's post with "Interesting" at 11:08 a.m. ET. - From its overnight low of $78.14 to $96.67 on October 29, 2026, Hyperliquid (HYPE) rose 23.71% by 12:15 p.m. ET, still under its record daily close of $97.20 from September 22, 2026. - Hyperliquid (HYPE) closed a UTC day 15% or more higher 9 times from November 2024 to October 2026; 30 days later it was higher after 6 of the 9, with a median 30-day change of +28.2% across all 9, but 5 of the 9 came in its first month of trading. - Over the 12 months to October 28, 2026, Hyperliquid's HYPE token moved a median 2.68% a day, against 1.15% for Bitcoin and 0.51% for the S&P 500. # Why is Hyperliquid up? HYPE rose 18.5% on the ICE deal, mostly before Musk posted **The short version:** Hyperliquid (HYPE) was at $95.48 at 12:19 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 29, 2026, up 18.46% from its October 28 close. The trigger was ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreeing with trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid perpetual futures to the US. 72% of the rise from 6:30 a.m. came before Elon Musk posted. Why a deal about trade[XYZ] moves HYPE: Hyperliquid is a blockchain built for trading, and HYPE is its token. trade[XYZ] runs 120 markets on it, perpetual futures (futures with no expiry date) on stocks, indices and commodities, as a "HIP-3" deployer, which must keep 500,000 HYPE staked. Hyperliquid's trading fees go to the deployer, its HLP vault and its Assistance Fund, which turns fees into HYPE and burns it. More trading there means more HYPE bought; the release does not say how fees on a US market would flow. ## Minute by minute: the deal moved HYPE, the posts came after Read the last column: HYPE was already up 8.71% when Stan Druckenmiller, the macro investor who ran Duquesne Capital, posted, and 12.82% when Elon Musk did. | New York time | What happened | HYPE at that minute | Change from the Oct. 28 close | |---|---|---|---| | 8:00 p.m., Oct. 28 | Hyperliquid's day closes (midnight UTC) | $80.60 | | | 6:30 a.m., Oct. 29 | HYPE starts to climb; we found no public source this early | $79.33 | −1.58% | | 6:41 a.m. | trade[XYZ] posts the ICE agreement on X | $83.20 | +3.22% | | 8:08 a.m. | Druckenmiller: "I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz)" | $87.63 | +8.71% | | 11:08 a.m. | Musk quotes that post: "Interesting" | $90.94 | +12.82% | | 12:19 p.m. | Last price we read | $95.48 | +18.46% | Of the rise from 6:30 a.m. to 12:19 p.m., 51% was in the price before [Druckenmiller's post](https://x.com/standuquesne/status/2115777839622689036) and 72% before [Musk's](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2115823011399938182). Druckenmiller wrote that he is an investor in trade[XYZ], the company building the markets; he did not say he bought HYPE. Musk's post is one word over Druckenmiller's and names neither HYPE nor Hyperliquid. HYPE did add 5.00% in the 71 minutes after it. Measured from the overnight low to the high, the rise is larger: from $78.14 overnight to $96.67 at 12:15 p.m. ET, HYPE rose 23.71%. It is still 1.8% under its record close of $97.20, set on September 22, 2026. Live chart and levels: [Hyperliquid (HYPE) price analysis](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/hype-usd). ## What ICE and trade[XYZ] agreed, and what they did not Intercontinental Exchange ([ICE](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/ice)), which owns the New York Stock Exchange, and trade[XYZ] signed a definitive agreement on October 29, 2026. From [ICE's release](https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/Intercontinental-Exchange-and-TradeXYZ-to-Bring-Hyperliquid-Based-Perpetual-Markets-Onshore/default.aspx) and trade[XYZ]'s [post on X](https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2115755854125478285): - **The plan:** bring trade[XYZ]'s Hyperliquid-based markets into the US, subject to regulatory approval; trade[XYZ]'s post names the CFTC, the US futures regulator. - **Who runs it:** ICE, as exclusive operator of a new regulated retail market with its own clearing, kept apart from its institutional futures. Hyperliquid supplies the infrastructure and trade[XYZ] designs the contracts. Customers would come through futures brokers and a planned ICE–OKX joint venture, which needs its own approvals. - **The money:** ICE takes a minority stake in trade[XYZ]. No amount was given; ICE says it won't materially affect its 2026 results. What it is not: HYPE is not listed on the New York Stock Exchange, no US market opened on October 29, and no regulator has approved anything. The deal is a plan to build, with no launch date. trade[XYZ]'s markets include a Tesla contract that trades while the Nasdaq is shut; what Tesla stock itself did after its product shows is in [our Roadster note](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/tesla-roadster-stock-reaction). ## HYPE's nine earlier 15% days, and the month after each HYPE closed a day (midnight UTC) 15% or more over the day before 9 times in its first 699 days of trading, from November 29, 2024. It fell the next day after 2 of them. Thirty days later it was higher after 6 of the 9; the median 30-day change across all 9 was +28.2%, and the worst followed December 20, 2024: −32.1%. | 15% day (UTC) | Close | That day | Next day | 7 days later | 30 days later | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Nov. 30, 2024 | $8.50 | +35.93% | +11.41% | +66.1% | +217.2% | | Dec. 3, 2024 | $11.08 | +31.49% | +2.90% | +22.4% | +109.0% | | Dec. 11, 2024 | $16.12 | +18.82% | +11.95% | +44.1% | +28.2% | | Dec. 14, 2024 | $24.15 | +23.98% | −1.08% | +32.6% | −10.4% | | Dec. 20, 2024 | $29.75 | +19.38% | +7.66% | −8.9% | −32.1% | | April 9, 2025 | $13.58 | +21.05% | +4.38% | +16.1% | +81.8% | | May 22, 2025 | $33.41 | +18.20% | −1.12% | −6.1% | +2.9% | | Jan. 27, 2026 | $30.80 | +23.55% | +11.80% | +6.1% | −8.7% | | Aug. 19, 2026 | $69.60 | +18.94% | +5.90% | +18.2% | +33.0% | ![Bar chart of Hyperliquid (HYPE) 30 days after each of the 9 days it closed 15% or more higher from November 2024 to October 2026: higher after 6, from −32.1% after December 20, 2024 to +217.2% after November 30, 2024](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog-sources/hyperliquid-hype-15-percent-days-30-days-later.png "HYPE 30 days after each 15% day. Source: Hyperliquid HYPE/USDC daily candles (UTC).") 5 of the 9 came in the first month after the airdrop (HYPE's free handout to early users), while HYPE was still finding a price. Of the 4 since January 2025, 3 were higher 30 days later. October 29 becomes the tenth if HYPE closes its day, at 8:00 p.m. ET, at $92.70 or more. Nine days is a small count, taken in a market that went from under $4 to $97.20: it describes HYPE's past and does not price its next month. ## The US tickers that moved with HYPE The US-listed tickers below hold HYPE. ICE signed the deal, and reported its third-quarter results the same morning ([8-K](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001571949/000110465926119880/tm2628301d1_ex99-1.htm)), so its move is not the deal's alone. Each is measured from its October 28 close at 4:00 p.m. ET to 12:19 p.m. ET on October 29; HYPE over the same window rose 17.07%. | Ticker | What it is | Change | |---|---|---| | PURR | Hyperliquid Strategies, a company whose business is holding HYPE | +22.09% | | HYPD | Hyperion DeFi, a company that keeps its treasury in HYPE | +21.44% | | HYPG | Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF | +17.80% | | THYP | 21Shares Hyperliquid Staking ETF | +17.74% | | BHYP | Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF | +17.52% | | ICE | Intercontinental Exchange, which signed the deal and reported that morning | +5.67% | | BTC | [Bitcoin](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/btc-usd), for scale | −0.11% | ![Bar chart of the change from the October 28 US close to 12:19 p.m. ET on October 29, 2026: PURR +22.09%, HYPD +21.44%, the three Hyperliquid ETFs from +17.52% to +17.80%, ICE +5.67%, Bitcoin −0.11%](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog-sources/hyperliquid-us-tickers-october-29-2026.png "Source: Yahoo Finance quotes; HYPE from the Hyperliquid book over the same window.") The three ETFs hold HYPE and moved within 0.72 points of it. The two companies moved more: their shares trade on their own buyers and sellers, not at the value of the tokens on their balance sheet. ICE, which also had results out, rose 5.67%, while Bitcoin moved −0.11%: this was a Hyperliquid day, not a crypto day. The crypto day came that evening: from 4:24 p.m. ET, [a suspected Binance hack](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/binance-suspected-hack-october-2026) took Bitcoin and BNB lower. ## If you hold HYPE and stocks, the same bet can sit in two places Over the 365 days to October 28, 2026, HYPE's median daily move was 2.68% either way, against 1.15% for Bitcoin and 0.51% for the [S&P 500](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/sp-500) (251 sessions): more than 5 times the index's ordinary day. Take a hypothetical $20,000 portfolio with $1,000 of HYPE on Hyperliquid and $1,000 of BHYP in a brokerage account. Each app shows a 5% line; together they are 10% in one token. From the US close on October 28 to 12:19 p.m. ET on October 29, those two lines added about $346, 1.73% of the whole portfolio, or 3.4 median S&P 500 days in one morning. On an ordinary day the same $2,000 moves about $54. Holding one bet in two places is the overlap problem of [is my portfolio diversified?](https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/is-my-portfolio-diversified), with a token in place of a fund. Your wallet shows the token and your broker shows the fund, each as its own 5%. [Put both in one portfolio](https://portfolio-terminal.com/onboarding?broker=hyperliquid): paste your Hyperliquid address and Portfolio Terminal reads what it holds, then add your broker's lines beside it, priced live next to your stocks and ETFs. Read-only: no sign-up, no signature, no key. HYPE held somewhere else? Type it as a line, `HYPE 25` with your own amount. [See a filled-in portfolio first](https://portfolio-terminal.com/demo). ## How we measured HYPE prices are Hyperliquid's own HYPE/USDC spot book (pair @107), read from its public API: daily candles in UTC since the November 29, 2024 listing, and one-minute candles for October 28 and 29. A 15% day is a daily close 15% or more over the day before; the listing day has no day before and is left out. The price at a post is the opening price of the minute it went up, and post times come from the X post ids, which carry their own timestamp. Yahoo's HYPE32196-USD agrees on the October 28 close ($80.64 against $80.60). The ordinary day is the median absolute daily change over the 12 months to October 28: HYPE and Bitcoin trade every day, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) on market days. US tickers are Yahoo quotes at 12:19 p.m. ET against their October 28 close. What would change the result: HYPE's day closes at 8:00 p.m. ET and US stocks at 4:00 p.m., after this note was written; and a source that moved HYPE before 6:30 a.m. would change the timeline. ## Reproduce it This rebuilds the 15% days and the median daily move from Hyperliquid's public API, with no key; we ran it on October 29, 2026. One-minute candles only go back a few days on that API, so the timeline above is not in it. ```python # Reproduces https://portfolio-terminal.com/blog/hyperliquid-hype-ice-deal-october-2026 # pip install requests # Every UTC day Hyperliquid (HYPE) closed 15% or more over the day before, from its # Nov. 29, 2024 listing to Oct. 28, 2026, and where it was 1, 7 and 30 days later. # Prices: Hyperliquid's own HYPE/USDC spot book (pair @107), public API, no key. from datetime import datetime, timezone from statistics import median import requests def ms(day): return int(datetime.strptime(day, "%Y-%m-%d").replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc).timestamp() * 1000) def pct(a, b): return (a / b - 1) * 100 req = {"coin": "@107", "interval": "1d", "startTime": ms("2024-11-29"), "endTime": ms("2026-10-29") - 1} rows = requests.post("https://api.hyperliquid.xyz/info", json={"type": "candleSnapshot", "req": req}, timeout=30).json() days = [datetime.fromtimestamp(r["t"] / 1000, timezone.utc).strftime("%Y-%m-%d") for r in rows] closes = [float(r["c"]) for r in rows] print(f"{len(days)} UTC days, {days[0]} to {days[-1]}; Oct. 28 close ${closes[-1]:.2f}\n") print(f"{'15% day':<12}{'move':>9}{'next':>9}{'7 days':>9}{'30 days':>9}") big = [] for i in range(1, len(days)): move = pct(closes[i], closes[i - 1]) if move < 15: continue after = [pct(closes[i + n], closes[i]) if i + n < len(days) else None for n in (1, 7, 30)] big.append((days[i], after)) cells = "".join(f"{a:>8.1f}%" if a is not None else " n/a" for a in after) print(f"{days[i]:<12}{move:>8.2f}%{cells}") with30 = [a[2] for _, a in big if a[2] is not None] print(f"\n15% days: {len(big)}, fell the next day: {sum(1 for _, a in big if a[0] < 0)}") print(f"higher 30 days later: {sum(1 for a in with30 if a > 0)} of {len(with30)}, median {median(with30):+.1f}%") print(f"in the first month (before 2025): {sum(1 for d, _ in big if d < '2025-01-01')}") year = closes[-366:] moves = [abs(pct(year[k + 1], year[k])) for k in range(365)] print(f"median daily move, 365 days to Oct. 28, 2026: {median(moves):.2f}%") ``` ```text 699 UTC days, 2024-11-29 to 2026-10-28; Oct. 28 close $80.60 15% day move next 7 days 30 days 2024-11-30 35.93% 11.4% 66.1% 217.2% 2024-12-03 31.49% 2.9% 22.4% 109.0% 2024-12-11 18.82% 12.0% 44.1% 28.2% 2024-12-14 23.98% -1.1% 32.6% -10.4% 2024-12-20 19.38% 7.7% -8.9% -32.1% 2025-04-09 21.05% 4.4% 16.1% 81.8% 2025-05-22 18.20% -1.1% -6.1% 2.9% 2026-01-27 23.55% 11.8% 6.1% -8.7% 2026-08-19 18.94% 5.9% 18.2% 33.0% 15% days: 9, fell the next day: 2 higher 30 days later: 6 of 9, median +28.2% in the first month (before 2025): 5 median daily move, 365 days to Oct. 28, 2026: 2.68% ``` --- *This note explains a market event. It is not investment advice.* Sources: [ICE press release, Hyperliquid-based perpetual markets, Oct. 29, 2026](https://ir.theice.com/press/news-details/2026/Intercontinental-Exchange-and-TradeXYZ-to-Bring-Hyperliquid-Based-Perpetual-Markets-Onshore/default.aspx) · [trade.xyz on X, Oct. 29, 2026](https://x.com/tradexyz/status/2115755854125478285) · [Stan Druckenmiller on X, Oct. 29, 2026](https://x.com/standuquesne/status/2115777839622689036) · [Elon Musk on X, Oct. 29, 2026](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2115823011399938182) · [Hyperliquid API documentation](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/for-developers/api) · [Yahoo Finance, Hyperliquid USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYPE32196-USD/) · [Yahoo Finance, PURR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PURR/) Follow the market around it, updated every session: [S&P 500 today](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/sp-500) · [Nasdaq Composite today](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/nasdaq-composite) · [CME Group, ICE's rival in futures](https://portfolio-terminal.com/analyse/cme). ## Questions and answers **Why is Hyperliquid (HYPE) up today?** On October 29, 2026, ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, signed a definitive agreement with trade[XYZ] to bring Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures to the US, subject to regulatory approval, and took a minority stake in trade[XYZ]. HYPE started rising at 6:30 a.m. ET and was at $95.48 at 12:19 p.m. ET, up 18.46% from its October 28 close. **Why does the ICE deal matter for the HYPE token?** trade[XYZ] runs its 120 perpetual futures markets on Hyperliquid as a HIP-3 deployer, which must keep 500,000 HYPE staked, and Hyperliquid sends trading fees to the deployer, its HLP vault and its Assistance Fund, which converts fees into HYPE and burns it. More trading on Hyperliquid means more HYPE bought. ICE's October 29, 2026 release does not say how fees on a US market would flow. **Did Elon Musk tweet about Hyperliquid?** Not by name. At 11:08 a.m. ET on October 29, 2026, Elon Musk quoted Stan Druckenmiller's post about investing in trade[XYZ] with one word, "Interesting". By then HYPE was already 12.82% over its October 28 close; 72% of its rise from 6:30 a.m. to 12:19 p.m. came before Musk's post. **What did Stan Druckenmiller say about Hyperliquid?** At 8:08 a.m. ET on October 29, 2026, Stan Druckenmiller posted: "I am excited to be an investor in trade(xyz) as they partner with ICE to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States." He invested in trade[XYZ], the company building the markets; the post does not say he bought HYPE. **Is Hyperliquid listed on the New York Stock Exchange?** No. The October 29, 2026 agreement makes ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, the planned operator of a new US-regulated market for trade[XYZ]'s Hyperliquid-based perpetual futures. It needs regulatory approval, has no launch date, and does not list the HYPE token on any exchange. **What happened after HYPE's previous 15% days?** Hyperliquid (HYPE) closed a UTC day 15% or more higher 9 times from November 29, 2024 to October 28, 2026. It fell the next day after 2 and was higher 30 days later after 6; the median 30-day change across all 9 was +28.2%. 5 of the 9 came in its first month of trading; the worst month after one was −32.1%, from December 20, 2024. **How can you hold Hyperliquid in a US brokerage account?** Through ETFs that hold HYPE, such as the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF (BHYP), the Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF (HYPG) and the 21Shares Hyperliquid Staking ETF (THYP), or companies that hold it, such as Hyperliquid Strategies (PURR) and Hyperion DeFi (HYPD). On October 29, 2026, the ETFs rose 17.52% to 17.80% by 12:19 p.m. ET. This is not investment advice.